Andy Burnham’s massive win in the Makerfield by-election means another major vote is about to take place in Greater Manchester. Mr Burnham served as Greater Manchester mayor for nearly ten years before becoming the new Makerfield MP after a seismic victory over Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon.

Being Greater Manchester mayor was a job which elevated Mr Burnham’s profile and helped him build a powerbase of support across the city-region, which has become the fastest growing part of the UK economy. But his return to Parliament means he is no longer the region’s mayor.

An election now needs to take place to find a new mayor, and a date of July 30 has already been confirmed for when that will happen.

When Mr Burnham was first elected as Greater Manchester mayor in 2017, he won a whopping 63 per cent of the vote. After that he was re-elected twice, in 2021 and 2024, and both times he was well ahead of his nearest rivals.

Labour never looked like losing the role under him. But there are signs that the next election for Greater Manchester mayor will be the closest race it has ever been.

With Mr Burnham now busy in Westminster and likely to challenge Keir Starmer to become prime minister, Labour faces a huge challenge to keep hold of Greater Manchester mayor job.

It comes at a time when other political parties such as Reform UK and the Green Party recently made massive gains in Greater Manchester in the local elections in May. They will be eyeing the job of mayor and hoping to make a serious challenge to win it.

In addition, a new voting system has just been brought in for how mayors are elected.

The 2024 mayoral election used the first-past-the-post system, the same as is used to elected MPs. But the government has passed new legislation to change how mayors are elected, with a new method known as supplementary voting.

The change came into force on June 18 after passing through Parliament wrapped up in the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act. This is where voters choose their first and second preferences among the candidates, and second preference votes can be crucial.

If no candidate gets 50 per cent of vote in the first round of voting, a second round of voting is held between the two candidates with the most support. That’s the stage where secondary votes are added to the mix and could flip the entire result on its head.

One potential scenario could see party A win more votes in the first round of voting, but still go on to lose the mayoral by-election if party B picks up more second preference votes in round two.

One political expert has predicted that the change could hurt Reform UK, possibly making it easier for Labour to keep hold of the mayor’s job.

Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, said in May that Reform could be the ‘biggest losers’ from a move back to supplementary voting because of the size differences between the ‘left and right’ block of voters in Greater Manchester who may give each other their second preferences.

Reform UK said earlier this week that the change was a ‘cynical attempt’ to sway the race in Labour’s favour. Labour didn’t comment when asked about Reform’s claims.

So with the most unpredictable Greater Manchester mayoral election for years now starting, who are the runners and riders likely to be?

All the rumoured Greater Manchester mayor candidates

Conservatives
Nadim Muslim’s name was mentioned by sources within the Conservatives as a potential candidate, but many stressed that there would be a ‘thorough’ selection process before a name is announced.

Councillor Muslim is leader of the Conservative group at Bolton council and chair of Greater Manchester Conservatives, so has connections across the region and leadership experience.

He is a councillor based the Bromley Cross ward in Bolton.

Green Party
Three names from the Green Party were put forward to stand for Greater Manchester mayor.

The list included Geraldine Coggins, a councillor who is leader of the Green Party group on Trafford council. Laurence Blackwell-Jones in Manchester was on the list too, who co-founded Greater Manchester Tenants Union. The third name was Ashley Trigg, who is based in the Green Party’s Wigan and Leigh branch.

Sources said Councillor Coggins was considered the favourite to get the backing of Green Party members in Greater Manchester because of her ‘extensive’ political and leadership experience.

Labour
Bev Craig is the likely candidate. The Labour councillor has served as leader of Manchester council since 2021, when she became the first woman to hold the post.

She’s experienced in GMCA matters, having been helping run the show while Andy Burnham was campaigning in Makerfield.

Salford mayor Paul Dennett had long been considered another potential candidate for the next Greater Manchester mayor, but it’s understood he will not be standing in the election for mayor.

Lib Dems
Rumours within the Lib Dems are that Richard Kilpatrick is set to be the candidate. He’s a councillor in Didsbury and sits on the Greater Manchester Police, Fire and Crime Panel at the GMCA.

He has also been appointed to several committees at Manchester council on matters such as planning, resources, and auditing.

The Lib Dems have sizeable support in some areas of Greater Manchester, including in Stockport where the party runs the council.

Reform UK
Dan Barker could be the choice for Reform UK, sources within the party have said. He was the Reform candidate in the 2024 mayoral election so has done the dance before and has the experience of running a mayoral campaign.

Dan Barker is a coordinator for Reform UK across Greater Manchester and was once a member of the Conservatives before leaving the party to join Reform.

Councillor Sian Astley, leader of Reform UK group on Manchester council, has also been tipped as a potential candidate.

She was first elected to Manchester council in the Baguley ward at the local elections in May, and leads the seven-strong group of Reform councillors in the city.

Asked if she would stand as the candidate, she told the Manchester Evening News: “Baguley is my priority, I’ve not gone into politics to use Baguley as a stepping stone to other things.”

Restore Britain
Marlon West is rumoured to be in the running to be the Restore Britain candidate.

He’s a child exploitation campaigner and has had a busy few weeks working on the campaign trail for Restore Britain in Makerfield supporting the party’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd.